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Prognosis in Palliative Care Study (PiPS) predictor models were developed in 2011 to estimate the survival of terminal cancer patients in the United Kingdom. The aim of this study was to validate the PiPS model for terminal cancer patients in Korea, and evaluate its value in clinical practice.
This study included 202 advanced cancer patients who were admitted to the cancer hospital's palliative care ward from November 2011 to February 2013. On admission, physicians recorded the PiPS-A, PiPS-B, and doctor's survival estimates in inpatients.
The median survival across PiPS-A categories was 9, 28, and 33 days, and the median survival across PiPS-B was 9.5, 27, and 43 days. The median actual survival was 25 days; overall accuracy between the PiPS-A, PiPS-B, doctor's estimates of survival, and actual survival was 52.0%, 49.5%, and 46.5%, respectively. The PiPS-A and PiPS-B groups for survival in 'days' showed a sensitivity of 48.4% and 64.1%, and specificity of 87.7%, and 77.5%, respectively. The PiPS-A and PiPS-B groups for survival in 'weeks' showed a sensitivity of 59.2%, and 44.7%, and specificity of 61.6%, and 64.7%, respectively. The PiPS-A and PiPS-B 'months' group showed a sensitivity of 37.1% and 37.1%, and specificity of 74.9% and 78.4%, respectively. The 'weeks' and 'months' groups showed significantly prolonged survival rates than 'days' group did in both PiPS-A and PiPS-B, by the Kaplan-Meier method.
The PiPS predictor models effectively predicted the survival ≥14 days in terminal cancer patients, and were superior to doctor's estimates.
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A frequent manifestation of advanced cancer patients is malnutrition, which is correlated with poor prognosis and high mortality. Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is an easy-to-use and non-invasive technique to evaluate changes in body composition and nutritional status. We investigated BIA-derived phase angle as a prognostic indicator for survival in advanced cancer patients.
Twenty-eight patients treated at the hospice center of Seoul St. Mary's Hospital underwent BIA measurements from January, 2013 to May, 2013. We also evaluated palliative prognostic index (PPI) and palliative performance scale to compare with the prognostic value of phase angle. Cox's proportional hazard models were constructed to evaluate the prognostic effect of phase angle. The Kaplan Meier method was used to calculate survival.
Using univariate Cox analysis, phase angle (hazard ratio [HR], 0.61/per degree increase; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.42 to 0.89; P = 0.010), PPI (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.47; P = 0.048) were found to be significantly associated with survival. Adjusting age, PPI, body mass index, phase angle significantly showed association with survival in multivariate analysis (HR, 0.64/per degree increase; 95% CI, 0.42 to 0.95; P = 0.028). Survival time of patients with phase angle ≥ 4.4° was longer than patients with phase angle < 4.4° (log rank, 6.208; P-value = 0.013).
Our data suggest BIA-derived phase angle may serve as an independent prognostic indicator in advanced cancer patients.
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Trunk Skeletal Muscle Mass and Phase Angle Measured by Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis are Associated with the Chance of Femoral Neck Fracture in Very Elderly People
It is important to know and decide when to end regimen for the quality of life of the patients. However, there is currently no clear agreement on when to terminate palliative chemotherapy. We investigated the duration between the last chemotherapy and death, and associated factors affecting patients receiving palliative care after the last chemotherapy.
We studied 242 patients who were put into palliative care ward after receiving chemotherapy and died during hospitalization from 2008 to 2009. Electronic medical records were used to gather information on demographic characteristics, types of primary cancer, and palliative chemotherapy. Then we analyzed the relationship between the clinical characteristics of patients and interval between last chemotherapy and death.
The average survival time of patients after referral to palliative care was 17.5 days; survival time after discontinuation of chemotherapy was 103 days. Also, 104 (43.0%) patients died within 3 months and 14 (5.8%) patients died within 1 month of persistent palliative chemotherapy. Chemotherapy on patients within 3 months from their death was not associated with the social characteristics of the population.
The patients who were referred to palliative care were found to have continued to receive chemotherapy within 3 months before death. However, only a small number of patients received chemotherapy within 1 month before death, which confirms that futile chemotherapy that extends to the end of life was less frequent. Doctors should be able to recognize the implications of excessive and aggressive use of chemotherapy and should actively communicate with patients about therapeutic choices.
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